| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9269 |
| DP9269 The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit | |
| Gabriel Pérez-Quirós; Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-12-16 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest financial and real crisis. Reading the recent literature, it seems that the crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind when looking at data not to see it coming. In this paper, we illustrate this failure by looking at one of the most cited and relevant variables in this analysis, the now infamous credit to GDP chart. We compare the conclusions reached in the literature after the crisis with the results that could have been drawn from an ex ante analysis. We show that, even though credit affects the business cycle in both the expansion and the recession phases, this effect is almost negligible and impossible to exploit from a policymaker?s point of view. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Credit Financial crisis Forecasting |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9269 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538103 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gabriel Pérez-Quirós,Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas. DP9269 The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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