G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9277
DP9277 Conflict, Climate and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis
Eliana La Ferrara
发表日期2013-01-13
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要We conduct a geographically and temporally disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the sub-national level in Africa over the period 1997-2011. Our units of observation are cells of 1 degree of latitude by 1 degree of longitude. We exploit within-year variation in the timing of weather shocks and in the growing season of different crops, as well as spatial variation in crop cover, to construct an original measure of shocks that are relevant for agricultural production. Employing a new drought index we show that negative climate shocks which occur during the growing season of the main crop cultivated in the cell have a sizeable and persistent effect on conflict incidence. We also use state-of-the-art spatial econometric techniques to test for the presence of temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict, and we find both to be sizeable and highly statistically significant. Exploiting variation in the type of conflict episode, we find that the impact of climate shocks on conflict is particularly significant when focusing on outcomes such as battles and violence against civilians. Our estimates can be used to predict how future warming scenarios affect the prevalence and diffusion of conflict.
主题Development Economics ; Public Economics
关键词Africa Civil conflict Gridded data Spatial Weather shocks
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9277
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538113
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Eliana La Ferrara. DP9277 Conflict, Climate and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis. 2013.
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