| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9473 |
| DP9473 Optimal fiscal policy | |
| Coen N. Teulings; Jasper Lukkezen | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-05-12 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper derives and estimates rules for fiscal policy that prescribe the optimal response to changes in unemployment and debt. We combine the reducedform model of the economy from a linear VAR with a non-linear welfare function and obtain analytic solutions for optimal policy. The variables in our reducedform model ? growth, unemployment, primary surplus ? have a natural rate that cannot be affected by policy. Policy can only reduce fluctuations around these natural rates. Our welfare function contains future GDP and unemployment, the relative weights of which determine the optimal response. The optimal policy rule demands an immediate and large policy response that is procyclical to growth shocks and countercyclical to unemployment shocks. This result holds true when the weight of unemployment in the welfare function is reduced to zero. The rule currently followed by policy makers responds procyclically to both growth and unemployment shocks, and does so much slower than the optimal rule, leading to significant welfare losses. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Debt sustainability Fiscal consolidation Fiscal policy rules Optimal control Optimal policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9473 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538308 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Coen N. Teulings,Jasper Lukkezen. DP9473 Optimal fiscal policy. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
