| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9487 |
| DP9487 The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic | |
| Philippe Bacchetta; Eric van Wincoop | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-05-26 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? Second, what can explain the difference relative to previous recessions, where we witnessed far weaker co-movement? To address these questions, we develop a two-country model that allows for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Moreover, we show that several factors generated particular vulnerability to such a global panic in 2008: tight credit, the zero lower bound, unresponsive fiscal policy and increased economic integration. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Contagion Great recession International co-movements |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9487 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538323 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Philippe Bacchetta,Eric van Wincoop. DP9487 The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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