| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9580 |
| DP9580 The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by-date | |
| Roger Farmer | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-08-04 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment rate returns to its so called 'natural rate?. That assumption is called the Natural Rate Hypothesis (NRH). This paper reviews a body of work, published over the last decade, which is critical of the NRH. I argue that the NRH does not hold in the data and I provide an alternative paradigm that explains why it does not hold. I replace the NRH with the assumption that the animal spirits of investors are a fundamental of the economy and I show how to operationalize that idea by constructing an empirical model that outperforms the new-Keynesian Phillips curve. I model animal spirits with a new fundamental that I call the belief function. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | inflation Natural rate hypothesis Unemployment |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9580 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538416 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roger Farmer. DP9580 The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by-date. 2013. |
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