G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9615
DP9615 Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S.
Nuno Limão; Kyle Handley
发表日期2013-08-25
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要We assess the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty (TPU) toward China in a tractable general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms. We show that increased TPU reduces investment in export entry and technology upgrading, which in turn reduces trade flows and real income for consumers. We apply the model to analyze China's export boom around its WTO accession and argue that in the case of the U.S. the most important policy effect was a reduction in TPU: granting permanent normal trade relationship status and thus ending the annual threat to revert to Smoot-Hawley tariff levels. We construct a theory-consistent measure of TPU and estimate that it can explain between 22-30% of Chinese exports to the US after WTO accession. We also estimate a welfare gain of removing this TPU for U.S. consumers and find it is of similar magnitude to the U.S. gain from new imported varieties in 1990-2001.
主题International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词China Policy uncertainty Trade World trade organization Welfare
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9615
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538450
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Nuno Limão,Kyle Handley. DP9615 Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S.. 2013.
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