| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9646 |
| DP9646 The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy | |
| Alan M. Taylor; Oscar Jorda | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-09-15 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified and state-contingent framework. We achieve identification of causal effects with new propensity-score based methods for time series data. Using this novel approach, we show that austerity is always a drag on growth, and especially so in depressed economies: a one percent of GDP fiscal consolidation translates into a loss of 4 percent of real GDP over five years when implemented in a slump, rather than just 1 percent in a boom. We illustrate our findings with a counterfactual evaluation of the impact of the UK government?s shift to austerity policies in 2010 on subsequent growth. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Matching Rubin causal model Propensity score Regression adjustment Allocation bias Average treatment effect Booms Fiscal multipliers Identification Inverse probability weighting |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9646 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538482 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan M. Taylor,Oscar Jorda. DP9646 The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy. 2013. |
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