G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9658
DP9658 Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries
Mark Gradstein; Markus Brückner
发表日期2013-09-22
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries. To identify exogenous, unanticipated, idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year-to-year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1980-2009. Our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0.2. To explain this result we show, using instrumental variables techniques, that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance. An important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Consumption International capital flows Net current transfers Permanent income hypothesis Risk sharing Transitory output shocks
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9658
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538494
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mark Gradstein,Markus Brückner. DP9658 Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries. 2013.
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