| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9658 |
| DP9658 Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries | |
| Mark Gradstein; Markus Brückner | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-09-22 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries. To identify exogenous, unanticipated, idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year-to-year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1980-2009. Our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0.2. To explain this result we show, using instrumental variables techniques, that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance. An important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Consumption International capital flows Net current transfers Permanent income hypothesis Risk sharing Transitory output shocks |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9658 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538494 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mark Gradstein,Markus Brückner. DP9658 Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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