| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9669 |
| DP9669 Was Stalin Necessary for Russia?s Economic Development? | |
| Sergei Guriev; Aleh Tsyvinski; Mikhail Golosov; Anton Cheremukhin | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-09-29 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies structural transformation of Soviet Russia in 1928-1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a large dataset that covers Soviet Russia during 1928-1940 and Tsarist Russia during 1885-1913. We use a two-sector growth model to compute sectoral TFPs as well as distortions and wedges in the capital, labor and product markets. We find that most wedges substantially increased in 1928-1935 and then fell in 1936-1940 relative to their 1885-1913 levels, while TFP remained generally below pre-WWI trends. Under the neoclassical growth model, projections of these estimated wedges imply that Stalin?s economic policies led to welfare loss of -24 percent of consumption in 1928-1940, but a +16 percent welfare gain after 1941. A representative consumer born at the start of Stalin?s policies in 1928 experiences a reduction in welfare of -1 percent of consumption, a number that does not take into account additional costs of political repression during this time period. We provide three additional counterfactuals: comparison with Japan, comparison with the New Economic Policy (NEP), and assuming alternative post-1940 growth scenarios. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; Economic History ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Industrialization Japan Russia Stalin Unbalanced growth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9669 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538505 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sergei Guriev,Aleh Tsyvinski,Mikhail Golosov,et al. DP9669 Was Stalin Necessary for Russia?s Economic Development?. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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