G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9669
DP9669 Was Stalin Necessary for Russia?s Economic Development?
Sergei Guriev; Aleh Tsyvinski; Mikhail Golosov; Anton Cheremukhin
发表日期2013-09-29
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要This paper studies structural transformation of Soviet Russia in 1928-1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a large dataset that covers Soviet Russia during 1928-1940 and Tsarist Russia during 1885-1913. We use a two-sector growth model to compute sectoral TFPs as well as distortions and wedges in the capital, labor and product markets. We find that most wedges substantially increased in 1928-1935 and then fell in 1936-1940 relative to their 1885-1913 levels, while TFP remained generally below pre-WWI trends. Under the neoclassical growth model, projections of these estimated wedges imply that Stalin?s economic policies led to welfare loss of -24 percent of consumption in 1928-1940, but a +16 percent welfare gain after 1941. A representative consumer born at the start of Stalin?s policies in 1928 experiences a reduction in welfare of -1 percent of consumption, a number that does not take into account additional costs of political repression during this time period. We provide three additional counterfactuals: comparison with Japan, comparison with the New Economic Policy (NEP), and assuming alternative post-1940 growth scenarios.
主题Development Economics ; Economic History ; Public Economics
关键词Industrialization Japan Russia Stalin Unbalanced growth
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9669
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538505
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sergei Guriev,Aleh Tsyvinski,Mikhail Golosov,et al. DP9669 Was Stalin Necessary for Russia?s Economic Development?. 2013.
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