G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9779
DP9779 Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030
Kym Anderson; Anna Strutt
发表日期2013-12-08
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource-poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the on-going benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming trade-related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one-quarter, and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource-abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.
主题International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词Global economy-wide model projections Asian economic growth and structural change Booming sector economics Food security
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9779
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538615
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kym Anderson,Anna Strutt. DP9779 Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030. 2013.
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