| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9787 |
| DP9787 Technological Foundations of Political Instability | |
| Konstantin Sonin; Dmitry Dagaev | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-12-08 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | There has been a wide-spread belief that elections with a wide franchise following removal of an oppressive dictator lead to establishment of a government that is not vulnerable to mass protest. At the same time, most of the post-World War II non-constitutional exits of recently-installed autocratic leaders were caused by elite coups, rather than popular protests. The recent experience of Egypt, where the democratic post-Mubarak government, a result of the Arab Spring, collapsed after having had almost uninterrupted protests since its first day in office, offers a striking counterexample to both of these patterns. We demonstrate that this is a general phenomenon: the same technological shock, arrival of social media, that makes the incumbent vulnerable, lays foundation for continuous instability of the subsequent democratic government. Our theoretical model, which incorporates protest into a Downsian framework, takes into account specific features of modern protests: the significant role of social media and the absence of the partisan or personalized leadership during popular unrest. Case studies of the Arab countries with and without large-scale protests corroborate our theoretical findings. |
| 主题 | Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Arab spring Autocracy Collective action Regime change Social media |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9787 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538623 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Konstantin Sonin,Dmitry Dagaev. DP9787 Technological Foundations of Political Instability. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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