G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9820
DP9820 Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus infl?ation targeting: a survey
Patrick Minford
发表日期2014-02-09
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要We survey recent literature comparing inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT) as macroeconomic stabilization policies. Our focus is on New Keynesian models and areas which have seen significant developments since Ambler?s (2009) survey: the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates; financial frictions; and optimal monetary policy. Ambler?s main conclusion that PT improves the inflation-output volatility trade-off in New Keynesian models is reasonably robust to these extensions, several of which are attempts to address issues raised by the recent financial crisis. The beneficial effects of PT therefore appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy New Keynesian. Accordingly, we discuss recent experimental and survey evidence on whether expectations are rational, as well as the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of New Keynesian models. In addition, we discuss a more recent strand of applied literature that has formally tested New Keynesian models with rational expectations. Overall the evidence is not conclusive, but we note that New Keynesian models are able to match a number of dynamic features in the data and that behavioral models of the macroeconomy are outperformed by those with rational expectations in formal statistical tests. Accordingly, we argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to PT.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Inflation targeting Price level targeting Rational expectations
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9820
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538656
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Patrick Minford. DP9820 Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus infl?ation targeting: a survey. 2014.
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