| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9888 |
| DP9888 Trade and Uncertainty | |
| Alan M. Taylor; Dennis Novy | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-03-16 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or foreign suppliers, but with higher costs in the latter case. Due to fixed costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of intermediates. We show that in response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally adjust their inventory policy by cutting their orders of foreign intermediates disproportionately strongly. In the aggregate, this response leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic economic activity. We confront the model with newly-compiled monthly aggregate U.S. import data and industrial production data going back to 1962, and also with disaggregated data back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and the cyclical behavior of international trade. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Imports Intermediates Inventory Real options Trade collapse Uncertainty shock |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9888 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538722 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan M. Taylor,Dennis Novy. DP9888 Trade and Uncertainty. 2014. |
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