全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP9933 What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP9933
	DP9933 What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?
	Robert Kollmann; Werner Roeger; Jan in t Veld; Marco Ratto; Lukas Vogel
发表日期	2014-04-13
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany?s current account surplus after the launch of the Euro. The most important factors driving the German surplus were positive shocks to the German saving rate and to ROW demand for German exports, as well as German labour market reforms and other positive German aggregate supply shocks. The convergence of REA interest rates to German rates due to the creation of the Euro only had a modest effect on the German current account and on German real activity. The key shocks that drove the rise in the German current account tended to worsen the REA trade balance, but had a weak effect on REA real activity. Our analysis suggests these driving factors are likely to be slowly eroded, leading to a very gradual reduction of the German current account surplus. An expansion in German government consumption and investment would raise German GDP and reduce the current account surplus, but the effects on the surplus are likely to be weak.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Current account Estimated dsge model Eurozone crisis Intra-european imbalances Monetary union
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp9933
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538767
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robert Kollmann,Werner Roeger,Jan in t Veld,et al. DP9933 What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?. 2014.