| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9948 |
| DP9948 Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defense Spending Shocks | |
| Evi Pappa | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-04-20 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We identify US defense news shocks as shocks that best explain future movements in defense spending over a five-year horizon and are orthogonal to current defense spending. Our identified shocks are strongly correlated with the Ramey (2011) news shocks, but explain a larger share of macroeconomic fluctuations and have significant demand effects. Fiscal news induces significant and persistent increases in output, consumption, investment, hours and the interest rate. Standard DSGE models fail to produce such a pattern. We propose a sticky price model with distortionary taxation, variable capital utilization, capital adjustment costs and rule-of-thumb consumers that replicates the empirical findings. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Defense spending news Dsge model Maximum forecast error variance Svar |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9948 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538782 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Evi Pappa. DP9948 Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defense Spending Shocks. 2014. |
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