G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP9975
DP9975 Macro coordination: Forward Guidance as ?cheap talk??
Marcus Miller
发表日期2014-05-11
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要In the context of revived output growth and business confidence in the UK, we analyse forward guidance as a ?coordination device?, indicating that monetary accommodation will be available for a welcome and long-awaited shift out of prolonged recession. As David Miles has emphasised, however, the existence of multiple equilibria is a necessary condition for costless and non-binding messages ? so-called ?cheap talk? ? to act in this way. By way of microfoundations, we appeal to Peter Diamond?s classic model of search, where the positive externalities offered by ?thick? markets can generate different equilibrium levels of production. What of the objection that ?cheap talk? by the MPC may be used deliberately to mislead the Private Sector in order to assist the MPC achieve its objectives? We show that this is not true for symmetric inflation targeting, where ?cheap talk? selects the Pareto dominant equilibrium. (This contrasts with the case where high inflation is penalised, but not below target inflation).
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Cheap-talk Coordination problems Equilibrium selection monetary policy Multiple equilibria
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp9975
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538808
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Marcus Miller. DP9975 Macro coordination: Forward Guidance as ?cheap talk??. 2014.
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