| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10062 |
| DP10062 Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations | |
| Ran Spiegler | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-07-13 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | I present a framework for analyzing decision makers with an imperfect understanding of their environment's correlation structure. The decision maker faces an objective multivariate probability distribution (his own action is one of the random variables). He is characterized by a directed acyclic graph over the set of variables. His subjective belief filters the objective distribution through his graph, via the factorization formula for Bayesian networks. This belief distortion implies that the decision maker's long-run behavior may affect his perception of the consequences of his actions. Accordingly, I define a "personal equilibrium" notion of optimal choices. I show how recent models of boundedly rational expectations (as well as new ones, e.g. reverse causality) can be subsumed into this framework as special cases. Some general properties of the Bayesian-network representation of subjective beliefs are presented, as well as a "missing data" foundation. |
| 主题 | Industrial Organization |
| 关键词 | Bayesian networks Boundedly rational expectations Coarse reasoning Directed acyclic graphs Misspecified models Personal equilibrium Reverse causality |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10062 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538894 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ran Spiegler. DP10062 Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations. 2014. |
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