G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP10062
DP10062 Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations
Ran Spiegler
发表日期2014-07-13
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要I present a framework for analyzing decision makers with an imperfect understanding of their environment's correlation structure. The decision maker faces an objective multivariate probability distribution (his own action is one of the random variables). He is characterized by a directed acyclic graph over the set of variables. His subjective belief filters the objective distribution through his graph, via the factorization formula for Bayesian networks. This belief distortion implies that the decision maker's long-run behavior may affect his perception of the consequences of his actions. Accordingly, I define a "personal equilibrium" notion of optimal choices. I show how recent models of boundedly rational expectations (as well as new ones, e.g. reverse causality) can be subsumed into this framework as special cases. Some general properties of the Bayesian-network representation of subjective beliefs are presented, as well as a "missing data" foundation.
主题Industrial Organization
关键词Bayesian networks Boundedly rational expectations Coarse reasoning Directed acyclic graphs Misspecified models Personal equilibrium Reverse causality
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp10062
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538894
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ran Spiegler. DP10062 Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations. 2014.
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