| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10109 |
| DP10109 Predicting Winners in Civil Wars | |
| Marc Weidenmier; Kim Oosterlinck | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-08-17 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war. The key insight we deliver is that, for typical sovereign debt contracts, the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war. We test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars, including when the incumbent government loses (the Chinese Nationalists), when a new government is installed by a foreign power and decides to repudiate debt (the restoration of Ferdinand VII of Spain), and when there is a secession (the U.S. Confederacy). For China, markets were predicting a Communist victory three years before it happened. For the U.S., markets never gave the South much more than a 40 percent chance of maintaining the Confederacy. For Spain, markets considered the restoration of Ferdinand VII as likely (probabilities above 50%) as soon as France declared its intention to send military forces to the area. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; Economic History |
| 关键词 | Civil wars Predictions markets Conflict Asset prices |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10109 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538942 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marc Weidenmier,Kim Oosterlinck. DP10109 Predicting Winners in Civil Wars. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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