| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10240 |
| DP10240 The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation | |
| Patrick Minford; Zhirong Ou; Jingwen Fan | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-11-09 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront the identification problem involved by setting up the FTPL as a structural model for the episode and pitting it against an alternative Orthodox model; the models have a reduced form that is common in form but, because each model is over-identified, numerically distinct. We use indirect inference to test which model could be generating the VECM approximation to the reduced form that we estimate on the data for the episode. Neither model is rejected, though the Orthodox model outperforms the FTPL. But the best account of the period assumes that expectations were a probability-weighted combination of the two regimes. Fiscal policy has a substantial role in this weighted model. A similar model accounts for the 1980s though the role of fiscal policy gets smaller. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Uk inflation Fiscal theory of the price level Identification Testing indirect inference |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10240 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539073 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Patrick Minford,Zhirong Ou,Jingwen Fan. DP10240 The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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