| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10272 |
| DP10272 Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain | |
| Ivan Petrella; Thomas Drechsel; Juan Antolin-Diaz | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-11-30 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long- run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that this slowdown started prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, variations in the growth rate of labor productivity appear to be the most important driver of changes in GDP growth for both the US and other advanced economies. When applied to real-time data, the proposed model is capable of detecting shifts in long-run growth in a timely and reliable manner. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Dynamic factor models Business cycles Mixed frequencies Real-time forecasting Long-run growth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10272 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539104 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ivan Petrella,Thomas Drechsel,Juan Antolin-Diaz. DP10272 Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
