| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10419 |
| DP10419 Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey | |
| Sumru G. Altug; Cem Çakmaklı | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-02-15 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations, thereby integrating the predictive power of the survey expectations together with the baseline model. We further incorporate the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation expectations and therefore, predicting inflation accurately. Results indicate superior predictive power of the proposed framework compared to the model without survey expectations as well as several popular benchmarks such as the backward and forward looking Phillips curves and naive forecasting rule. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Inflation forecasting Inflation targeting State space models Survey-based expectation Term structure of inflation expectations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10419 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539251 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sumru G. Altug,Cem Çakmaklı. DP10419 Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey. 2015. |
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