| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10430 |
| DP10430 Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand | |
| James Stock; Lutz Kilian; Lucas W Davis; John Coglianese | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-02-22 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Traditional least squares estimates of the responsiveness of gasoline consumption to changes in gasoline prices are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities. We demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result. We provide evidence that gasoline buyers increase gasoline purchases before tax increases and delay gasoline purchases before tax decreases. This intertemporal substitution renders the tax instrument endogenous, invalidating conventional IV analysis. We show that including suitable leads and lags in the regression restores the validity of the IV estimator, resulting in much lower and more plausible elasticity estimates. Our analysis has implications more broadly for the IV analysis of markets in which buyers may store purchases for future consumption. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Anticipation Forward-looking behavior Gasoline market Gasoline tax Iv Price elasticity of demand |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10430 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539262 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James Stock,Lutz Kilian,Lucas W Davis,et al. DP10430 Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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