| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10453 |
| DP10453 Wealth and Volatility | |
| Jonathan Heathcote; fabrizio perri | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Periods of low household wealth in United States macroeconomic history have also been periods of high business cycle volatility. This paper develops a simple model that can exhibit self-fulfilling fluctuations in the expected path for unemployment. The novel feature is that the scope for sunspot-driven volatility depends on the level of household wealth. When wealth is high, consumer demand is largely insensitive to unemployment expectations and the economy is robust to confidence crises. When wealth is low, a stronger precautionary motive makes demand more sensitive to unemployment expectations, and the economy becomes vulnerable to confidence-driven fluctuations. In this case, there is a potential role for public policies to stabilize demand. Microeconomic evidence is consistent with the key model mechanism: during the Great Recession, consumers with relatively low wealth, ceteris paribus, cut expenditures more sharply. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Aggregate demand Precautionary saving Multiple equilibria |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10453 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539285 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonathan Heathcote,fabrizio perri. DP10453 Wealth and Volatility. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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