G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP10463
DP10463 Quantifying Confidence
Harris Dellas; Fabrice Collard; George-Marios Angeletos
发表日期2015-03-01
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要We enrich workhorse macroeconomic models with a mechanism that proxies strategic uncertainty and that manifests itself as waves of optimism and pessimism about the short-term economic outlook. We interpret this mechanism as variation in "confidence" and show that it helps account for many salient features of the data; it drives a significant fraction of the volatility in estimated models that allow for multiple structural shocks; it captures a type of fluctuations in "aggregate demand" that does not rest on nominal rigidities; and it calls into question existing interpretations of the observed recessions. We complement these findings with evidence that most of the business cycle in the data is captured by an empirical factor which is unlike certain structural forces that are popular in the literature but similar to the one we formalize here.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Business cycles Strategic uncertainty Higher-order beliefs Confidence Aggregate demand Coordination failure Dsge models
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp10463
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539295
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Harris Dellas,Fabrice Collard,George-Marios Angeletos. DP10463 Quantifying Confidence. 2015.
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