| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10463 |
| DP10463 Quantifying Confidence | |
| Harris Dellas; Fabrice Collard; George-Marios Angeletos | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We enrich workhorse macroeconomic models with a mechanism that proxies strategic uncertainty and that manifests itself as waves of optimism and pessimism about the short-term economic outlook. We interpret this mechanism as variation in "confidence" and show that it helps account for many salient features of the data; it drives a significant fraction of the volatility in estimated models that allow for multiple structural shocks; it captures a type of fluctuations in "aggregate demand" that does not rest on nominal rigidities; and it calls into question existing interpretations of the observed recessions. We complement these findings with evidence that most of the business cycle in the data is captured by an empirical factor which is unlike certain structural forces that are popular in the literature but similar to the one we formalize here. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Strategic uncertainty Higher-order beliefs Confidence Aggregate demand Coordination failure Dsge models |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10463 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539295 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harris Dellas,Fabrice Collard,George-Marios Angeletos. DP10463 Quantifying Confidence. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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