| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10553 |
| DP10553 Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters? | |
| Gabriel Pérez-Quirós; Joan Paredes | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-04-26 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as published/announced by the government; (ii) incoming, observed data on the actual degree of implementation of ongoing plans. We formulate and estimate empirical models for a number of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) to show that government (consumption) targets convey useful information about ex-post policy developments when policy changes significantly (even if past credibility is low) and when there is limited information about the implementation of plans (e.g. at the beginning of a fiscal year). In addition, our models are instrumental to unveil the current course of policy in real-time. Our approach complements a well-established branch of the literature that finds politically-motivated biases in policy targets. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Fiscal policy Forecasting Policy credibility |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10553 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539385 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gabriel Pérez-Quirós,Joan Paredes. DP10553 Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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