| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10615 |
| DP10615 Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Mea Culpa | |
| Andrew Rose; Reuven Glick | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-05-24 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In our European Economic Review (2002) paper, we used pre-1998 data on countries participating in and leaving currency unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which includes the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We have three findings. First, our assumption of symmetry between the effects of entering and leaving a currency union seems reasonable in the data but is uninteresting. Second, EMU typically has a smaller trade effect than other currency unions, often estimated to be negligible or negative. Third and most importantly, estimates of the currency union effect on trade are sensitive to the exact econometric methodology; we find no substantive reliable and robust effect of currency union on trade. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Bilateral Common Country Exports Fixed Gravity Poisson Specific Time-varying |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10615 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539447 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrew Rose,Reuven Glick. DP10615 Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Mea Culpa. 2015. |
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