| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10655 |
| DP10655 How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks? | |
| Martín Uribe; Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-06-14 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly different. We estimate country-specific SVARs using data from 38 poor and emerging countries and find that terms-of-trade shocks explain only 10 percent of movements in aggregate activity. We then build a fully-fledged, open economy model with three sectors, importables, exportables, and nontradables, and use data from each of the 38 countries to obtain country-specific estimates of key structural parameters, including those defining the terms-of-trade process. In the estimated theoretical business-cycle models terms-of-trade shocks explain on average 30 percent of the variance of key macroeconomic indicators, three times as much as in SVAR models. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles. Nontradable goods Real exchange rates Terms of trade |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10655 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539487 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martín Uribe,Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé. DP10655 How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks?. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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