| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP10761
|
| DP10761 Back to Gold: Sterling in 1925 |
| Stefan Gerlach; Peter Kugler
|
| 发表日期 | 2015-08-09
|
| 出版年 | 2015
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Expectations of Sterling returning to Gold have been disregarded in empirical work on the US dollar ? Sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s. We incorporate such considerations in a PPP model of the exchange rate, letting the probability of a return to gold follow a logistic function. We draw several conclusions: (i) the PPP model works well from spring 1919 to spring 1925; (ii) wholesale prices outperform consumer prices; (iii) allowing for a return to gold leads to a higher speed of adjustment of the exchange rate to PPP; (iv) interest rate differentials and the relative monetary base are crucial determinants of the expected return to gold; (v) the probability of a return to Gold peaked at about 72% in late 1924 and but fell to about 60% in early 1925; and (vi) our preferred model does not support the Keynes? view that Sterling was overvalued after the return to gold. |
| 主题 | Economic History
; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10761
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539592
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Stefan Gerlach,Peter Kugler. DP10761 Back to Gold: Sterling in 1925. 2015.
|
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