| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10815 |
| DP10815 Predictable Recoveries | |
| Wouter Den Haan; Xiaoming Cai; Jonathan Pinder | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-09-13 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Should an unexpected change in real GNP of x% lead to an x% change in the forecasts of future GNP? The answer could be no even if GNP is a random walk. We show that US economic downturns often go together with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GNP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. But not always! Essential for our results is that GNP forecasts are not based on a univariate time series model, which is not uncommon. Our alternative forecasts are based on a simple multivariate representation of GNP?s expenditure components. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Forecasting Unit root |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10815 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539644 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wouter Den Haan,Xiaoming Cai,Jonathan Pinder. DP10815 Predictable Recoveries. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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