| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10817 |
| DP10817 Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions | |
| Gernot Müller; Alexander Kriwoluzky; Martin Wolf | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-09-13 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Membership in a currency union is not irreversible. Expectations of exit may emerge during a sovereign debt crisis, because by exiting countries can redenominate and reduce their liabilities. This possibility alters the dynamics of sovereign debt crises. We establish this formally within a small open economy model of changing policy regimes. The model permits explosive dynamics of debt and sovereign yields inside the currency union and allows us to distinguish between exit expectations and those of an outright default. By estimating the model on Greek data, we quantify the contribution of exit expectations to the crisis dynamics during 2009-2012. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Currency union Euro crisis Exit Fiscal policy Redenomination premium Regime-switching model Sovereign debt crisis |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10817 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539646 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gernot Müller,Alexander Kriwoluzky,Martin Wolf. DP10817 Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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