| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10868 |
| DP10868 Investment strategy and selection bias: An equilibrium perspective on overconfidence | |
| Philippe Jehiel | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-10-11 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Prospective investors of new projects consider the returns of implemented projects with similar (observed) attributes and invest if the empirical mean return exceeds the cost. The steady states of such economies result in suboptimal investment decisions due to the selection bias in the sampling procedure. Assuming higher attributes are associated with higher returns, there is systematic overinvestment as compared with the Bayesian benchmark, thereby illustrating that selection bias may explain entrepreneurial overconfidence. Various extensions are considered to illustrate the negative externality that rational investors exert on other investors, the effect of correlation between the attributes considered by various investors, and how trading may be affected by the sampling procedure. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Industrial Organization |
| 关键词 | Investment strategy Overconfidence Selection bias |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10868 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539698 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Philippe Jehiel. DP10868 Investment strategy and selection bias: An equilibrium perspective on overconfidence. 2015. |
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