| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10900 |
| DP10900 Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty | |
| Steven Davis; Nicholas Bloom; Scott Baker | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-10-25 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence ? including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles ? indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, policy uncertainty innovations foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Economic uncertainty Fluctuations Policy uncertainty |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10900 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539730 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Steven Davis,Nicholas Bloom,Scott Baker. DP10900 Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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