G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP10900
DP10900 Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty
Steven Davis; Nicholas Bloom; Scott Baker
发表日期2015-10-25
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence ? including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles ? indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, policy uncertainty innovations foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词Business cycles Economic uncertainty Fluctuations Policy uncertainty
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp10900
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539730
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Steven Davis,Nicholas Bloom,Scott Baker. DP10900 Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2015.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Steven Davis]的文章
[Nicholas Bloom]的文章
[Scott Baker]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Steven Davis]的文章
[Nicholas Bloom]的文章
[Scott Baker]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Steven Davis]的文章
[Nicholas Bloom]的文章
[Scott Baker]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。