| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10902 |
| DP10902 The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations | |
| Lawrence H. Summers; Antonio Fatas | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-10-25 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Using data seven years after the beginning of the crisis as well as estimates on potential output our analysis suggests that attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their negative impact on output. Our results provide support for the possibility of self-defeating fiscal consolidations in depressed economies as developed by DeLong and Summers (2012). |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Austerity Fiscal policy Great recession Hysteresis Persistence |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10902 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539732 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lawrence H. Summers,Antonio Fatas. DP10902 The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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