| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10910 |
| DP10910 Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs | |
| Régis Barnichon | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-11-01 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable. |
| 主题 | Labour Economics ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Steady-state unemployment Stock-flow model |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10910 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539740 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Régis Barnichon. DP10910 Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs. 2015. |
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