G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP10910
DP10910 Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs
Régis Barnichon
发表日期2015-11-01
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.
主题Labour Economics ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词Steady-state unemployment Stock-flow model
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp10910
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539740
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Régis Barnichon. DP10910 Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs. 2015.
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