| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11004 |
| DP11004 Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates | |
| Vasiliki Skreta; Raffaella Giacomini | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-12-20 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We formulate a theory of expectation updating that fits the dynamics of accuracy and disagreement in a new survey dataset where agents can update at any time while observing each other's expectations. Agents use heterogeneous models and can be inattentive but, when updating, they follow Bayes' rule and assign homogeneous weights to public information. Our empirical findings suggest that agents do not herd and, despite disagreement, they place high faith in their models, whereas during a crisis they lose this faith and undergo a paradigm shift. This simple, "micro-founded" theory could enhance the explanatory power of macroeconomic and finance models. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Bayesian learning Disagreement Expectation formation Forecast accuracy Herding Heterogeneous agents Information rigidities |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11004 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539833 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Vasiliki Skreta,Raffaella Giacomini. DP11004 Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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