| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11035 |
| DP11035 Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us | |
| Lutz Kilian; Christiane Baumeister | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-01-17 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists? improved understanding of oil markets. Unexpected oil price fluctuations are commonly referred to as oil price shocks. We document that, in practice, consumers, policymakers, financial market participants and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Oil market Oil price expectations Oil price shock Peak oil Unconventional oil |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11035 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539864 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Christiane Baumeister. DP11035 Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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