| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11121 |
| DP11121 The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model | |
| [unavailable] | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-02-19 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences—in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model (using quarterly data for 1999-2014) to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that financial shocks were key drivers of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the continuing poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US. The financial shocks identified by the model are consistent with observed performance indicators of the EA and US banking systems. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Post-crisis slump Euro area United states Estimated dsge model Demand and supply shocks Financial shocks |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11121 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539938 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | [unavailable]. DP11121 The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model. 2016. |
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