| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11251 |
| DP11251 Optimal Forward Guidance | |
| Florin Bilbiie | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-04-30 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Optimal forward guidance (OFG) is the simple policy of keeping interest rates low for some time after the liquidity trap, moving straight to normal-times optimal policy thereafter, and determining the extra accommodation duration optimally. I solve for the optimal duration in closed form in a new-Keynesian model, where OFG is close to fully-optimal Ramsey. The simple rule "announce a duration of half of the trap’s duration times the disruption" is a good approximation and alleviates credibility problems. Because it anchors expectations of (delphic) agents who otherwise mistake commitment for bad news, the simple rule is often welfare-preferable to odyssean commitment. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Forward guidance Liquidity trap Zero lower bound Optimal monetary policy Heterogenous agents Heterogenous beliefs Incomplete markets Unemployment risk Hand-to-mouth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11251 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540069 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Florin Bilbiie. DP11251 Optimal Forward Guidance. 2016. |
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