全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP11305 Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP11305
	DP11305 Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?
	Franck Portier; Paul Beaudry; Dana Galizia
发表日期	2016-05-31
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	In most modern macroeconomic models, the steady state (or balanced growth path) of the system is a local attractor, in the sense that, in the absence of shocks, the economy would converge to the steady state. In this paper, we examine whether the time series behavior of macroeconomic aggregates (especially labor market aggregates) is in fact supportive of this local-stability view of macroeconomic dynamics, or if it instead favors an alternative interpretation in which the macroeconomy may be better characterized as being locally unstable, with nonlinear deterministic forces capable of producing endogenous cyclical behavior. To do this, we extend a standard AR representation of the data to allow for smooth nonlinearities. Our main finding is that, even using a procedure that may have low power to detect local instability, the data provide intriguing support for the view that the macroeconomy may be locally unstable and involve limit-cycle forces. An interesting finding is that the degree of nonlinearity we detect in the data is small, but nevertheless enough to alter the description of macroeconomic behavior. We complete the paper with a discussion of the extent to which these two different views about the inherent dynamics of the macroeconomy may matter for policy.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Business cycles Limit cycles Time series
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp11305
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540121
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Franck Portier,Paul Beaudry,Dana Galizia. DP11305 Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?. 2016.