| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11334 |
| DP11334 The Analytics of the Greek Crisis | |
| Dimitri Vayanos; Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Thomas Philippon | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-06-16 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis of 2010. We first benchmark the crisis against all episodes of sudden stops, sovereign debt crises, and lending boom/busts in emerging and advanced economies since 1980. The decline in Greece's output, especially investment, is deeper and more persistent than in almost any crisis on record over that period. We then propose a stylized macro-finance model to understand what happened. We find that a severe macroeconomic adjustment was inevitable given the size of the fiscal imbalance; yet a sizable share of the crisis was also the consequence of the sudden stop that started in late 2009. Our model suggests that the size of the initial macro/financial imbalances can account for much of the depth of the crisis. When we simulate an emerging market sudden stop with initial debt levels (government, private, and external) of an advanced economy, we obtain a Greek crisis. Finally, in recent years, the lack of recovery appears driven by elevated levels of non-performing loans and strong price rigidities in product markets. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Greek crisis Dsge model Sovereign default Sudden stop Bank-sovereign loop Fiscal contraction Price rigidities |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11334 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540150 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dimitri Vayanos,Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Thomas Philippon. DP11334 The Analytics of the Greek Crisis. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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