| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11360 |
| DP11360 Subject Rational Expectations Will Contaminate Randomized Controlled Medical Trials | |
| Gilles Chemla; Christopher Hennessy | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-06-28 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a rational expectations model of placebo effects. If subjects in seemingly-ideal single-stage RCTs form rational beliefs about breakthroughs based upon personal physiological responses, mental effects differ across medications received, treatment versus control. Consequently, the average cross-arm health difference becomes a biased estimator of the mean non-placebo physiological effect. Constructively, we show: bias can be altered through choice of control; high-efficacy controls mitigate upward bias; and unbalanced panels may be preferred since bias approaches zero as treatment probability approaches zero. Consistent with experimental evidence, our theory implies outcomes within-arm and cross-arm differences can be non-monotone in treatment probability. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; Financial Economics ; Industrial Organization ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Rational expectations Rcts Bias |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11360 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540174 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gilles Chemla,Christopher Hennessy. DP11360 Subject Rational Expectations Will Contaminate Randomized Controlled Medical Trials. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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