| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11373 |
| DP11373 Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign | |
| Régis Barnichon; Christian Matthes | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-07-04 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Despite intense scrutiny, estimates of the government spending multiplier remain highly uncertain, with values ranging from 0.5 to 2. While an increase in government spending is generally assumed to have the same (mirror-image) effect as a decrease in government spending, we show that relaxing this assumption is important to understand the effects of fiscal policy. Regardless of whether we identify government spending shocks from (i) a narrative approach, or (ii) a timing restriction, we find that the contractionary multiplier --the multiplier associated with a negative shock to government spending-- is above 1, while the expansionary multiplier --the multiplier associated with a positive shock-- is substantially below 1. The multiplier is largest in recessions, as found in previous studies, but only because the contractionary multiplier is largest in recessions. The expansionary multiplier is always below 1 and not larger in recessions. We argue that our results help understand the wide range of multiplier estimates found in the literature. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11373 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540187 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Régis Barnichon,Christian Matthes. DP11373 Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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