| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11428 |
| DP11428 Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy | |
| Seppo Honkapohja; George W. Evans; Kaushik Mitra | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-08-03 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are pessimistic. The inflation target is locally stable under learning. Pessimistic initial expectations may sink the economy into steady-state stagnation with deflation. The deflation rate can be near zero for discount factors near one or if credit frictions are present. Following a severe pessimistic expectations shock a large temporary fiscal stimulus is needed to avoid or emerge from stagnation. A modest stimulus is sufficient if implemented early. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Stagnation Deflation Expectations Output multiplier New keynesian model Adaptive learning Fiscal policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11428 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540242 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seppo Honkapohja,George W. Evans,Kaushik Mitra. DP11428 Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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