| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11503 |
| DP11503 Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound | |
| Helene Rey; Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-09-16 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The current environment is characterized by low real rates and by policy rates close to or at their lower bound in all major financial areas. We analyze these unusual economic conditions from a historical perspective and draw some implications for external imbalances, safe asset demand and the process of external adjustment. First, we decompose the fluctuations in the world consumption wealth ratio over long period of times and show that they anticipate movements of the real rate of interest. Second, our estimates suggest that the world real rate of interest is likely to remain low or negative for an extended period of time. In this context, we argue that there is a renewed Triffin dilemma where safe asset providers face a trade-off in terms of external exposure and real appreciation of their currency. This tradeoff is particularly acute for smaller economies. This is the `curse of the regional safe asset provider.' We discuss how this `curse' is playing out for two prominent regional safe asset providers: core EMU and Switzerland. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Secular stagnation Triffin dilemma Real interest rates |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11503 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540317 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Helene Rey,Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. DP11503 Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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