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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP11511 |
DP11511 Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure | |
David Dorn; David Autor; Gordon Hanson; Kaveh Majlesi | |
发表日期 | 2016-09-18 |
出版年 | 2016 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Has rising trade integration between the U.S. and China contributed to the polarization of U.S. politics? Analyzing outcomes from the 2002 and 2010 congressional elections, we detect an ideological realignment that is centered in trade-exposed local labor markets and that commences prior to the divisive 2016 U.S. presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising trade with China and classifying legislator ideologies by their congressional voting record, we find strong evidence that congressional districts exposed to larger increases in import competition disproportionately removed moderate representatives from office in the 2000s. Trade-exposed districts initially in Republican hands become substantially more likely to elect a conservative Republican, while trade-exposed districts initially in Democratic hands become more likely to elect either a liberal Democrat or a conservative Republican. Polarization is also evident when breaking down districts by race: trade-exposed locations with a majority white population are disproportionately likely to replace moderate legislators with conservative Republicans, whereas locations with a majority non-white population tend to replace moderates with liberal Democrats. We further contrast the electoral impacts of trade exposure with shocks associated with generalized changes in labor demand and with the post-2006 U.S. housing market collapse. |
主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11511 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540325 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Dorn,David Autor,Gordon Hanson,et al. DP11511 Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. 2016. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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