全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP11511 Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP11511
	DP11511 Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
	David Dorn; David Autor; Gordon Hanson; Kaveh Majlesi
发表日期	2016-09-18
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	Has rising trade integration between the U.S. and China contributed to the polarization of U.S. politics? Analyzing outcomes from the 2002 and 2010 congressional elections, we detect an ideological realignment that is centered in trade-exposed local labor markets and that commences prior to the divisive 2016 U.S. presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising trade with China and classifying legislator ideologies by their congressional voting record, we find strong evidence that congressional districts exposed to larger increases in import competition disproportionately removed moderate representatives from office in the 2000s. Trade-exposed districts initially in Republican hands become substantially more likely to elect a conservative Republican, while trade-exposed districts initially in Democratic hands become more likely to elect either a liberal Democrat or a conservative Republican. Polarization is also evident when breaking down districts by race: trade-exposed locations with a majority white population are disproportionately likely to replace moderate legislators with conservative Republicans, whereas locations with a majority non-white population tend to replace moderates with liberal Democrats. We further contrast the electoral impacts of trade exposure with shocks associated with generalized changes in labor demand and with the post-2006 U.S. housing market collapse.
主题	International Trade and Regional Economics
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp11511
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540325
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	David Dorn,David Autor,Gordon Hanson,et al. DP11511 Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. 2016.