| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11516 |
| DP11516 Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text | |
| Hannes Mueller; Christopher Rauh | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-09-20 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This article provides a new methodology to predict armed conflict by using newspaper text. Through machine learning, vast quantities of newspaper text are reduced to interpretable topics. We propose the use of the within-country variation of these topics to predict the timing of conflict. This allows us to avoid the tendency of predicting conflict only in countries where it occurred before. We show that the within-country variation of topics is an extremely robust predictor of conflict and becomes particularly useful when new conflict risks arise. Two aspects seem to be responsible for these features. Topics provide depth because they consist of changing, long lists of terms which makes them able to capture the changing context of conflict. At the same time topics provide width because they summarize all text, including coverage of stabilizing factors. |
| 主题 | Development Economics |
| 关键词 | Conflict Civil war Forecasting Machine learning Panel data Topic models Latent dirichlet allocation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11516 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540330 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hannes Mueller,Christopher Rauh. DP11516 Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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