| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| 来源ID | DP11520
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| DP11520 MACRO POLICY RESPONSES TO NATURAL RESOURCE WINDFALLS AND THE CRASH IN COMMODITY PRICES |
| Frederick van der Ploeg
|
| 发表日期 | 2016-09-21
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| 出版年 | 2016
|
| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Policy prescriptions for managing natural resource windfalls are based on the permanent income hypothesis: none of the windfall is invested at home and saving in an intergenerational SWF is dictated by smoothing consumption across different generations. Furthermore, with Dutch disease effects the optimal response is to intertemporally smooth the real exchange rate, smooth public and private consumption, and limit sharp fluctuations in the intersectoral allocation of production factors. We show that these prescriptions need to be modified for the following reasons. First, to cope with volatile commodity prices precautionary buffers should be put in a stabilisation fund. Second, with imperfect access to capital markets the windfall must be used to curb capital scarcity, invest domestically and bring consumption forward. Third, with real wage rigidity consumption must also be brought forward to mitigate transient unemployment. Fourth, the real exchange rate has to temporarily appreciate to signal the need to invest in the domestic economy to gradually improve the ability to absorb the extra spending from the windfall. Fifth, with finite lives the timing of handing back the windfall to the private sector matters and consumption and the real exchange rate will be volatile. Finally, with nominal wage rigidity we show that a Taylor rule is a better short-run response to a crash in commodity prices than a nominal exchange rate peg. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance
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| 关键词 | Dutch disease
Permanent income
Capital scarcity
Absorption constraints
Overlapping generations
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| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11520
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| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540334
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Frederick van der Ploeg. DP11520 MACRO POLICY RESPONSES TO NATURAL RESOURCE WINDFALLS AND THE CRASH IN COMMODITY PRICES. 2016.
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