| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP11521
|
| DP11521 Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations |
| Gernot Müller; Zeno Enders
|
| 发表日期 | 2016-09-21
|
| 出版年 | 2016
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We assess the contribution of "undue optimism" (Pigou) to business-cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. We develop a new strategy to estimate the effects of optimism shocks - perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. Specifically, we show that by including survey-based nowcast errors regarding current output growth in a VAR model, it is possible to identify optimism shocks. These shocks, in line with theory, generate negative nowcast errors, but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 15 percent of short-run fluctuations. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
|
| 关键词 | Undue optimism
Optimism shocks
Noise shocks
Animal spirits
Business cycles
Nowcast errors
Var
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11521
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540335
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Gernot Müller,Zeno Enders. DP11521 Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations. 2016.
|
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