G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP11535
DP11535 Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis
Nathan Sussman; Osnat Zohar
发表日期2016-09-26
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要Following the onset of the global financial crisis (2008) we witness a strengthening of the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term inflation expectations. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we decompose oil prices into a global demand factor and idiosyncratic factors that include supply side effects and weather conditions. The decomposition of oil prices allows us to show that since the crisis, global five-year breakeven inflation rates react quite strongly to global aggregate demand conditions embedded in oil prices. The result suggests that market participants perceive inflation targeting as either less effective around the effective lower bound or less aggressive when inflation deviates below target. Alternatively, it may be that in recent years monetary authorities have additional considerations such as macro-prudential issues.
主题Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词Inflation targeting Inflation expectations Credibility monetary policy Oil prices Anchoring
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp11535
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540349
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Nathan Sussman,Osnat Zohar. DP11535 Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis. 2016.
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