| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11570 |
| DP11570 Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century | |
| Dennis Novy; David Jacks | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-10-10 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world from the early 1930s and that this trend significantly deviates from the evolution of world GDP. Finally, using exogenous variation in trade-related distances to world markets, we demonstrate a significant causal role of market potential in driving global income growth over this period. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Economic geography Market potential Structural gravity Trade costs |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11570 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540384 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dennis Novy,David Jacks. DP11570 Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century. 2016. |
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